Ebook Free Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit From Turning Points in the Economy, by Lakshman Achuthan
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Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit From Turning Points in the Economy, by Lakshman Achuthan
Ebook Free Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit From Turning Points in the Economy, by Lakshman Achuthan
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From Publishers Weekly
Reading this thin volume on business cycles feels like riding the economic roller coaster itself. Beginning with some engaging chapters on the how and why of business cycles, it plummets into a dull trough about identifying and analyzing economic indicators and levels off with advice about using cyclical information to plan financial moves. Directors of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), a New York-based think tank specializing in cyclical research, the authors stress their affiliation with this "secret weapon" of corporate America throughout the text. But given the track record of most economic prognosticators—in March 2001, for example, 95 percent of American economists thought there would not be a recession, although one had already begun—some crowing about ECRIÂ’s success in predicting recessions and recoveries may be justified. Numbers could easily overwhelm the message here, but Achuthan and Banerji avoid a statistical tar pit. They use numbers judiciously and effectively and write in a style accessible to professionals and amateurs alike. They also exhibit a surprising sensitivity to the real consequences of business cycles. "Wile E. Coyote," they write, "after scraping himself off the canyon floor, again gives chase, heedless of the dangers ahead, oblivious to any lessons he might learn. Because he is only a cartoon character, no matter how many times he gets splattered, he never really gets hurt. But life is not a cartoon. And if you are the one to take a nose dive when the economy makes an unexpected turn, the pain is real. It may not be so easy to peel yourself off the canyon floor." WhatÂ’s ultimately disappointing about the book, though, is that its promise to provide readers with an economic dashboard to navigate the financial peaks and valleys of business cycles appears to be a pumped-up advertisement for ECRI. Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Review
Advance Praise for BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE“This easy-to-read book tells you how the respected ECRI calls turning points, and how you can, too.” —Jane Bryant Quinn, Newsweek columnist" The Economic Cycle Research Institute can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion."--Harvard Business Review“Shows... how far the state of the art in cycle forecasting has advanced, and how investors can profit from it.” —Jon Markman, award-winning CNBC/MSN financial columnist “Read this jewel of a book and enter your own personal cyclical upswing.” —James Grant, editor, Grant's Interest Rate ObserverAcclaim for the Economic Cycle Research Institute“The dismal scientists have a dismal record in predicting recessions… The Economic Cycle Research Institute... has been more successful.” —The Economist
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Product details
Hardcover: 208 pages
Publisher: Crown Business (May 18, 2004)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0385509537
ISBN-13: 978-0385509534
Product Dimensions:
5.6 x 0.8 x 9.8 inches
Shipping Weight: 12.6 ounces
Average Customer Review:
3.0 out of 5 stars
66 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#937,318 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
As an economist I have followed the work of Moore and others involved in developing indicators trying to help us understand the global economy and hopefully predicting when recessions are occurring and when recoveries are underway. ECRI is a continuation of Moore's early work and after reading this book several years ago I began to follow ECRI and have been impressed with the accuracy of their predictions. Recently they have (late 2011) predicted that the US is in or will be in a recession and while recent data seems to conflict with that view they have held to their position explaining that a lot of the better data is either coincident or lagging. They are presently providing the "dashboard" and key data for the US without charge on their website and I always check it on Friday morning after 10:30 Eastern to see the latest developments. Their latest call on the economy falls three excellent recent calls. At a time when most were predicting a second half of 2011 upturn in the economy they called for a slowing and that is exactly what has occurred. Prior year many were predicting a double dip recession but ECRI went contrary and felt that their indicators showed a recovery in the second half of 2010. Once again they were right on target. Prior to this call in 2009 after the economic disasters of 2007 and 2008 they saw an upturn. While these calls are important what is more important is that there were useful. They did not come months after the fact but would have helped investors and business people to make accurate and timely decisions. For anyone who invests or runs a business ERCRI is an important and useful tool and their book will help you understand the background of their predictions. I an highly recommend this book.
It is the nature of free market economies to progress rhythmically through periods of expansion and contraction. It is one of a few interesting observations made by the authors of BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE that the intensity of these cycles in the U.S. has moderated over time. Booms and busts have become less common. Recessions rather than depressions, thankfully, are more likely to occur. We have a number of "automatic stabilizers" at work to absorb the shock of general and pervasive slowdowns in the economy. Those stabilizers operate through the mechanics of monetary and fiscal policy. The Federal Reserve controls the flow of money through the economy with the tourniquet of interest rates. The "misguided certainty" that leads to excessive optimism or irrational pessimism by corporations, businesses, and individuals can be tempered by prudent monetary action. At the same time social security, tax policy, unemployment insurance, and bank deposit insurance are some of the ways individuals have been protected from the potentially devastating effects of a negative turn in the economy. So there is reason to believe that the cycles have become less pronounced.Periodically an excessive optimism leads to the illusion that the business cycle has been eliminated, that the economy can grow steadily without retrenchment, without the need to eliminate its own inefficiencies. Mark Twain knew the "gilded age", the 1920's saw a "new era" at a "plateau of prosperity", and the 1990's marveled at a "new economy" with information systems and supply management software that could control excesses (e.g. inventory) before they stalled the economy. Ultimately the business cycle is produced by an imbalance of supply and demand. But it is human psychology extrapolating from the successes or failures of recent past experience that fails to see the imbalances building in the economy before a pivotal shift undermines a previously successful investment or business strategy. Renewed caution follows optimism, risk aversion follows speculation, and the cycle repeats.Readers will not find completely satisfying answers to "beating" (viz. profiting from) the business cycle in this short study, because its primary purpose is to introduce readers to the subscription advisory services of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). This explains the sometimes self-congratulatory tone of having accurately predicted recent shifts in economic activity both here and abroad. As a stand alone work of merit on the topic the authors might consider a brief glossary of key terms and concepts for a future edition.
I bought this book thinking it will explain business cycles, what causes them, and how to forecast them. Unfortunately, the book does not do any of that. Instead the authors keep telling the reader again and again that they are the only people who know business cycles and the only way to understand and forecast business cycles is to subscribe to their website. Beside that, I learned very little from this book.Although the authors are respected researcher in the area of business cycles, their book is a disappointment. It is more of an advertisement for the authors. The best book I have seen on business cycles is:"Recessions and Depressions: Understanding Business Cycles", by Todd A. Knoop.If you are interested in business cycles for the purpose of investing and asset management, I recommend the following books:1. "The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation", by Pring.2. "Using Economic Indicators to Improve Investment Analysis", by Tainer.3. "Timing the Market", by Weir. (this book is not about business cycles, but a very good book for market timing)
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